A new poll from East Carolina University's Center for Survey Research finds Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by nine percentage points in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race, 54% to 45%, with 1% supporting a minor-party or write-in candidate. The survey, conducted October 26 through 29, shows Cooper's lead expanding slightly from his seven-point advantage last month. The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The margin is notable because it is powered by two distinct advantages for Cooper. Among independent voters, he leads by 14 points, a critical bloc in a state known for tight statewide contests. Cooper also holds a net-positive favorability rating of 52% favorable to 39% unfavorable, while Whatley's ratings are underwater at 34% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Those numbers suggest the race is not simply a reflection of party affiliation but also of how voters view the candidates personally.
Perhaps the most telling finding is the economy. Forty-seven percent of voters name the economy and cost of living as their top issue, and among those voters Cooper leads Whatley by a two-to-one margin, 67% to 33%. That is a striking result in a race where Republicans typically hold an edge on economic issues. It implies that Whatley's message on the economy is not resonating with the voters who care most about it, or that Cooper has successfully framed the issue in his favor.
The poll's release comes as Election Day nears, making the nine-point gap a potential signal of momentum. While a single poll does not guarantee an outcome, the consistency of Cooper's lead across two surveys and the depth of his support among independents and economy-focused voters suggest a race that may be slipping away from Whatley. For Republicans hoping to hold the seat, the findings point to a need to reassess their messaging and outreach, particularly among voters who feel squeezed by rising costs.
The ECU Center for Survey Research conducts nonpartisan public opinion polling on elections, politics, and public policy issues in North Carolina and across the nation. For a full announcement, including downloadable images and bios, click here. The poll was distributed by Reportable, Inc., and more information about the ECU Center for Survey Research is available online.
With the credibility interval in mind, the nine-point lead is outside the statistical noise, reinforcing the idea that Cooper enters the final stretch with a measurable advantage. The implications extend beyond North Carolina: a Cooper win could help Democrats defend a Senate seat in a competitive state, while a Whatley loss would raise questions about the GOP's ability to convert economic discontent into votes. Either way, the poll offers a clear snapshot of a race tilting toward the Democrat as voters prepare to cast their ballots.
