A recent poll conducted by the ECU Center for Survey Research shows Democratic nominee Roy Cooper leading Republican nominee Michael Whatley by seven percentage points in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race. The survey, taken from September 30 to October 3, found Cooper with 50% support to Whatley's 43%, with only 6% undecided and 2% backing a minor-party or write-in candidate. The margin is unchanged from last month's poll, but the share of undecided voters has fallen sharply from 14% to 6%, indicating a more settled electorate.
The poll's credibility interval is plus or minus four percentage points, similar to a traditional margin of error. Even when undecided voters are forced to choose, Cooper's lead remains at seven points, with 53% supporting him and 46% supporting Whatley. This consistency suggests that the race has stabilized, and with fewer undecided voters, there is less room for major shifts in the final weeks.
Economic concerns are paramount for likely voters, with 55% naming the economy and cost of living as their top issue. Among these voters, Cooper expands his advantage significantly, leading 60% to 31%. This suggests that voters trust Cooper more to handle economic matters, which could be decisive in a state where financial pressures are top of mind.
Cooper's lead is also bolstered by strong support among independents, where he leads by 16 points (52% to 36%, with about 7% undecided). Additionally, Cooper enjoys a net-positive favorability rating, with 48% viewing him favorably and 43% unfavorably. In contrast, Whatley's ratings are net-negative, with only 31% favorable and 43% unfavorable. These favorability numbers indicate that Cooper is more well-liked and may attract voters beyond his base, while Whatley struggles to gain traction.
The poll's findings are significant because they suggest that despite the national political climate, Cooper has maintained a steady lead. The decline in undecided voters means that the race is firming up, and Whatley will need to shift the dynamics substantially to close the gap. With the economy as the dominant issue, Cooper's strong performance among those voters could be a major advantage.
For those interested in the full results, including downloadable images and bios, click here. The ECU Center for Survey Research is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative, ensuring methodological transparency. The poll was distributed by Reportable, Inc., a platform for press releases.
As the election approaches, these numbers will be closely watched. If Cooper can maintain his advantage on the economy and among independents, he may be able to hold off Whatley. However, with a seven-point lead and a credibility interval of four points, the race is not entirely out of reach for Whatley, but he faces an uphill battle. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Cooper's lead holds or if Whatley can mount a comeback.
