Black Friday and Cyber Monday may dominate holiday shopping headlines, but an analysis of more than 44 billion emails and 83 million text messages reveals that consumer purchasing continues well beyond those major promotional events. The findings, from Intuit Mailchimp’s Breaking Through Peak Season Noise report developed with Datalily, offer critical insights for businesses planning their year-end marketing strategies. The research analyzed messages sent globally through Mailchimp from Halloween through New Year’s Eve 2025, uncovering surprising patterns in when consumers buy and what brings them back.
One of the most striking findings is that quieter marketing days can still be strong shopping days. During the 2025 peak season, weekend order rates were twice weekday rates, even as brands sent roughly 60% fewer messages on weekends. On the Sunday between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, brands sent 59% fewer emails and 82% fewer text messages than on Black Friday, yet shopping activity remained robust. This suggests that consumers are not solely driven by promotional volume; they shop when it suits their schedules, and businesses that reduce messaging on weekends may still capture significant sales without flooding inboxes.
The research also highlights the growing power of text messaging during high-intent shopping periods. While email remained the larger revenue driver overall, SMS generated strong engagement during peak activity. During BFCM weekend, SMS averaged a 15.7% click rate per message delivered, compared with 1.4% for email. At peak points, SMS produced up to six times higher order rates than email and three times higher revenue per message. These differences underscore the importance of channel strategy: consumers respond differently to text versus email, and a mix of both may be necessary to reach shoppers effectively.
Acquiring new customers was another major theme. During BFCM weekend, first-time buyers accounted for 59% of email-attributed orders and nearly 70% of SMS-attributed orders. Moreover, these new customers spent more per order: through email, average order values for first-time buyers were 21% higher than for repeat buyers; through SMS, they were 39% higher. For businesses, this means holiday promotions are not just about driving immediate revenue from loyal customers—they are a prime opportunity to attract and convert new shoppers who may become long-term patrons.
Retention beyond the holidays is equally promising. Among shoppers who made their first purchase during peak season, 16.6% purchased again during the first quarter of 2026, with a median repurchase interval of 26 days. This indicates that the weeks following the holiday rush are crucial for nurturing newly acquired customers. Businesses that continue communicating with these shoppers can turn a one-time holiday purchase into ongoing loyalty.
Taken together, the research offers a broader understanding of holiday shopping behavior. Activity can remain strong beyond the biggest promotional days, consumers may respond differently across communication channels, and first-time customers can continue engaging with brands well into the new year. For businesses, these patterns can inform how and when they communicate with customers throughout the holiday season and beyond. To explore the full findings and interactive charts, visit Mailchimp’s Breaking Through Peak Season Noise report.
